Political & Economic Commentator
Current assessments of the headlines shaping the agenda
The fate of a disinflation programme is decided less by the level of interest rates than by how predictable the decisions behind them are. Credibility is monetary policy's cheapest instrument — and, once lost, its most expensive one.
Regional order is not remade by a single rupture but by the slow displacement of three overlapping axes. That shift will set the foreign policy agenda for the coming decade.
Decision quality depends less on the individual deciding than on the memory of the institution deciding. Institutions that lose their memory repeat old mistakes with new justifications.
Every unexplained reversal has a price. It is not paid at the moment of the announcement but months later, in the risk premium — and it is paid by everyone.
